Come on, did you really think that we could get through an entire election cycle with a guy named Huckabee in the race and not reference that movie?

So Mike Huckabee took the who cares Iowa caucus yesterday. OK, great win for morale of the troops, but what else really? New Hampshire is in four days now, so expect that overplay as well. But at least that is an actual primary. To me, there is something perverse about the caucuses, especially for the attention they get. Basically, each members of the community belonging to each party gather in a room and talk about who they want to be president, logging in a vote. For the Republicans, it is one man, one vote. For the democrats, they have a screwy system where if your candidate doesn’t place in the top three, then your second choice is logged in as your vote. Talk about skewed results.

I think the obsession with Iowa is that everyone wants an edge in political reporting. Well, you are following a red herring folks. I am not a dem so I can’t speak for them but I think if you really want a good indication of how the Republicans will eventually fall into place you should take a look at what happens in South Carolina in a couple weeks. Here is the first primary in a decent sized state with a decently representative population. And it is especially important for the Republicans. This is where the true conservatives are. That is a vote they don’t want to lose.

My predictions? You have not seen the end of Guliani of course. He endeared himself to me quite a bit by not playing in this Iowa business, seeing how much I am not a caucus fan. Don’t count out John McCain either. The defense angle still plays very well with many conservatives, although his immigration views may get him in trouble in an illegal-laden south. Here’s the word on the street though…if Fred Thompson ends up dropping out, which seems likely sooner than later, he may throw his support behind McCain. Don’t underestimate that union. There is still support for Thompson out there, media coverage or not. Right now, if I had to pick, John McCain is my guy, but not by much. Let me put it to you this way–if I was giving my free time to a campaign, it wouldn’t be to any of them at this point. They just haven’t differentiated themselves to me yet. We’ll see though. Cannot wait for South Carolina!