Archive for the 'Investing' Category

5 Ways to Prepare For a Recession

No matter how you look at things, the

U.S. economy is very grim right now. Housing values have tanked, the mortgage crisis is all anyone talks about, and the stock market is extremely unpredictable. There is no question that we are entering a recession; one that some predict may be as bad as the Great Depression.

Wall Street maestro Jim Melcher told the New York Sun that he is “worried about a recession. Not a normal one, but a very bad one. The worst since the 1930’s. I expect we’ll see clear signs of it in six months with a dramatic slowdown in the gross domestic product.”

Enough with the negativity! We all know what is coming for us and now, it’s time for everyone to sort out their game plan and try to weather the storm. Below, I give you five tips to help you survive the impending recession:

Don’t Panic! – Ah, it’s easier said than done, isn’t it? However, it is crucial that you think with a clear head when dealing with money. Don’t let your emotions get the best of you, lest you pass up some great money opportunities out of fear. Remember, the market will fluctuate and you may kick yourself later if you rashly pull out of some lucrative, long-term deals.

Diversify Your Investments – Hopefully, you have heeded the most basic personal finance advice and already have a diverse portfolio. If not, now is the time to start making safer bets until things stabilize. This will minimize your losses during the recession.

Update Your Resume – No, you won’t be jinxing yourself by preparing for the worst. Think of it as staying one step ahead of your competitors if it comes down to job loss. Professional traders are especially nervous in a bear market and for good reason. Keep your resume updated and handy, then tell yourself that there are plenty of opportunities for you, should your job security be threatened.

Start Saving – If you aren’t a frugal person; it’s time to tighten your belt and learn to be one. Start setting aside a bit of cash each month, even if it’s only a little. Cut out unnecessary spending, clip coupons, whatever it takes to make yourself more liquid.

Live in a Home You Can Afford – In other words, avoid foreclosure! If things are getting a bit tight with mortgage payments, consider other options before you become another statistic in this housing crisis. Selling a home isn’t easy right now, so if you have to downsize, you could even consider renting out your home.

It’s always best to think ahead when a storm is brewing. If you are an amateur investor, now is the time to have a meeting with a trusted advisor. Weigh your options, err on the side of caution, and remember not to panic. Good times will come around again and those of us who are prepared won’t suffer in the coming months.

 

By-line:

 

Heather Johnson is a freelance writer as well as a regular feature contributor for Reward Programs, a website which specializes in helping consumers select among the numerous AMEX rewards programs. Heather invites your writing job inquiries as well as comments and questions at her email address: heatherjohnson2323@gmail.com

The Joys of Being Young

Isn’t being young a fun time in your life? There are numerous reasons why people always say “Man, if I was only young again I would do this “thing” or go to that “place,” but now that I’m too old I can’t do it anymore.” Whenever someone that is older than you says that statement, you should write it down and see if you should go out there and do it. Experiencing things and going to new places is a great way to develop your mind, body and soul. Remember that having a “NO” attitude will end up making you a person that will have numerous regrets in the future. And how can you directly link this perception on life into your finances? Take risks that older people do not have the ability to take. I’ve spoken to numerous twenty year olds about finance and they sound more conservative than fifty year olds that read AARP magazines.

One thing that did please me is the fact that some twenty year olds really do have some financial sense, but are taking the extremely slow and steady approach to money. With interest rates getting cut on a near monthly basis, that savings account and CD won’t look so attractive pretty soon. Are there still conservative investment vehicles out there that won’t open you to a mound of risk? Sure there are, but you still have to do your homework to find them. What’s a few hours of homework if you can retire 10-20 years earlier? If someone told you to do a certain activity every week and that you would retire earlier with a lot more money, wouldn’t you want to know what it is? Well, it’s not a secret and people have been doing it for a very long time. Invest now, let your money compound, and spend it later.

I had a conversation with a particular friend that has accumulated a small fortune for a 25 year old guy. He has about $60,000 in a CD yielding about 4.5% which will be available for withdrawal in a few months. Here’s some more background about my friend: He is looking to purchase a home and a new car in the next year or two and wants to put a nice down payment on both items. What do you think he should be doing with this money? I told him that he is investing like a 50 year old about to purchase their second home. He is a smart individual with a great education (he has an MBA from a great university) and is currently making a big move in his career. With all these tangible and intangible assets he posses, he should be a bigger risk taker.

First, let’s tackle him wanting to purchase a house in the next couple of years. He says he wants to put down a sizable down payment because that’s what his parents told him to do. Well times have certainly changed. In those times, people lived in their first house for more than ten years. That’s incredibly hard to do with the ever changing job market forcing you to relocate on a drop of a dime (especially in your early career). I told him to put less money down and try to find a mortgage that will suit his needs for the next seven to ten years. Why so long if they won’t be living in that house for an extended period of time? Because padding your risk with a few more years will be more beneficial in long run.  Heck, I would tell him to only get 30 year fixed rate mortgages for the rest of his if he wants to be extremely conservative. This will allow him to put less money down and keep money in his pocket to invest in different things. He can also put the money that he saved on his house into purchasing his new car.

His $60,000 has a lot of potential if he used the money in a correct way. I actually told him he has too much savings! You don’t run into an individual like this every day. His money is tied up in savings and not in a retirement account. All the interest he receives is still being taxed. I told him to open a Roth IRA and immediately max it out. What type of investments should be in his Roth? I told him that index funds are his best bet. If it was me, I would find five to six companies that pay a good dividend and let it ride. I always love going to my investment account statements and seeing a nice fat dividend that will be reinvested. It’s a beautiful thing.

No matter what your financial position might be. Always remember that you are only young once and that you should live for the present and invest for the future. Do not limit your present day fun for the dreams of doing it in the future. Because in the future do you want to be the person that says “God, I wish I could be young again so I could have done that” or do you want to be the person that traveled around the world? Be Christopher Columbus he was a bad a$$.

Buy When You Are Down

Are we really in a recession or has the dream bubble burst? Did we really expect the housing market to always go up with no top on the horizon? Come on now… When I was working at the bank and I was supposed to sell home equity lines and loans to clients that had about 30% debt to income ratio, I knew something was going to happen. Our software actually promoted the idea to sell loans to people that were in the 30-40% debt to income range. I was a simple “banker” (really just a fancy word for salesman of financial products) and I could see what was going to happen four years ago. It just amazes me that financial institutions were so leveraged to the mortgage business even though a high school student with one semester of forecasting could predict it blowing up.

This situation does not have to get you down though. This market had a self-destruct button and it was hit a long time ago. Companies did this to themselves and the ones that can’t take the heat are going to be burnt. Badly burnt. But as you know, there are plenty of companies that are just getting brought down by the huge sell off that’s been going on for a while now. Some companies that seemed too expensive just a few months ago are now extremely cheap. It’s going to me hard making a positive return in this market, but you can certainly build a nice position while the market is low. Dividends are a huge key to be successful in this market, but there are plenty of other ways to get a pay off. Diversification could be a winner here if you choose the right fund. Fidelity reopened the Magellan fund; which brought some nice returns even in a pretty crappy market in the 80’s and 90’s. Fidelity is opening up the flood gates for new investors and maybe you should be part of the rush.

I know it seems depressing when you turn on the TV and all you see is the Dow sinking even further. I wouldn’t recommend putting all your money in one stock or purchasing a ton of stocks at one time. You need to purchase slowly and keep buying even if the market keeps sinking. The best idea is just let an index fund do everything for you. Just keep on dumping $300 dollars a month (if you can) in an index fund that is spread over the S&P 500, raw materials, minerals, and petroleum. The stock market will go up and you just need to buy it as the market goes down. There will be a U-turn at some point and investors will be happy that they bought when everyone was selling.

I also think that boom markets will be produced from this mortgage disaster. There’s still a lot of older people out there that are about to retire. This situation alone will send up certain sectors to new highs. Medical and anything influenced by an aging population will send stocks soaring. And because the whole market is hitting new two year lows, this offers the opportunity to own lots of stocks for real cheap. Happy investing and I would love to hear some new investing ideas you might have.   

Market Got You Down?

Could there actually be a positive side to the market’s recent implosion? It’s hard to look at the sunny side when it seems like a dark cloud is always hovering around. But I still think that you could eventually make some good money while the market corrects itself. This is a perfect opportunity for younger investors to purchase stocks of great companies at their lows. For the young investor it’s much more important to create a position and let it ride back to the top.

Great companies are still paying out healthy dividends which will be reinvested at their low share price. You can establish a small position and let it grow for the long term. It’s like growing a tree. First, you plant the seed (purchasing shares). Second you take care of your plant by watering it and providing shelter (reinvest the dividends and keep on purchasing shares). Eventually, you will end up having a big ol’ tree (a nice position in a good company).

The market has so much opportunity right now that it’s craving for some buyers. You can try to play it smart by purchasing and investing for the long-term or you can try to be a market timer and probably lose. No one ever got rich by purchasing shares at their highs and selling them at their lows. So please take advantage of the huge “fire sale” the market is giving us and buy some shares of some good companies.

The financial sector got killed this year, so their might be some good buying opportunities with good conservative banks. SunTrust for instance, got knocked down with their peers even though they still have a pretty clean balance sheet. They are paying a 4.9% dividend and are at a three year low. It’s still a great bank with excellent fundamentals.

Of course there are many other companies that I would buy if I had the money to invest. My personal favorites are still companies that are paying dividends because they offer long-term position growth. Right now, I would rather buy Microsoft than Apple because they pay out a dividend. It’s much easier to build a position when the company offers the investor an incentive to be a shareholder.

The other company I like, while their share price is getting beat up, is PWE. They pay out that nice dividend which will help the investor build a position very quickly. Remember to reinvest the dividend for maximum growth potential. The company also pays out their dividend monthly which is an added bonus. There are plenty of other Canadian oil trusts for the picking, but I still think there is more upside with this company.

The market is offering investors long-term buying potential. Young investors have the ability to make a lot of money in this market. If you have the ability to invest, invest in companies that are getting knocked around, but still offer a bright future.

Is the Fed Stepping on the Markets Toes?

With all the news circulating about the Fed’s decision on cutting rates for the third time in a row, is the economy really based on the Federal Reserve or companies blowing away earnings estimates provided by analysts? Right now it seems like it’s heavily dependent on the Fed. The complete lack of confidence in the market is creating a lot more controversy than the whole mortgage mess. I think that there’s about 600-800 points of pure speculation embedded in the Dow right now. Usually when people think of the American stock market and economy, they think of the purest form of separation of government and business.

But does this situation erase the line in the sand and mix the two together? I am starting to think that it is. It feels like a complete bail out of companies that really don’t deserve to still be around. The major companies that have suffered were in the business to make money out of thin air. Did they really think they would make money off of a consumer that can’t even pay for the minimum payments on their credit cards? Come on now! And those are the idiots the Fed is trying to save…

I am sure our country would be perfectly fine with the total disappearance of some of these companies. When you play with fire, your ass will get burned most of the time. The companies playing around with crappy mortgage portfolios deserve what they got. If I went to a casino and bet all my money on red and the ball lands on black, am I allowed to complain and try to get my money back? I could, but the manager would tell me it was my fault for gambling.

Where should we invest our money to get ahead of the game? I think we should play the market in a 10-12 stock portfolio. You need to have some consistent growers like (Kroger, (KR), Coke (KO), Costco (COST), and some that will deliver constant dividends Pengrowth (PGH), Bank of America (BAC), Unilever (UN). After the portfolio has a strong foundation, you can pick some good performers over the long-haul. I like Wainwright Bank (WAIN), Adobe (ADBE), Honda (HMC) and Hologic (HOLX). Those stocks have some varied fluctuation, but have a strong long-term performance. Your portfolio is almost complete, but it’s still missing a few more stocks to really make it happen. I am still on the E*Trade (ETFC) bandwagon even after all the news. Does this make me a hypocrite because of what I said before? Maybe a little, but their main business is still very strong and their cash infusion will certainly help. Here are some picks of my favorite movers and shakers: Nintendo (NTDOY.PK), Suncor Energy (SU), and ValueClick (VCLK).

No matter how you end up playing this wild market, keep your eye on the long-term and remember that the stuff in between is almost like an illusion. The next year might be scary, but I think that this market will end up producing a lot of rich people. Do you want to be part of the pack or sit on the sidelines with your best friend Mr. Mutual Fund?

Market Push Up?

Did we just receive a market comeback or is it just an illusion? I’m guessing a little bit of both. Last week was a horrible week in the market with an accelerated loss in the Dow of over 600 points. Then Monday came around with more disappointing numbers which was provided by the financials. Today provided a cushion landing for a lot of the stocks that got hit hard by the massive amount of speculation surrounding a lot of retail and financial companies.

A shroud of darkness has plagued the financial markets because of the lack of proper forecasting in the banking, brokerage and mortgage sectors. E*Trade for instance, announced that their mortgage backed securities lost more value than originally expected. When I first bought shares of E*Trade, I knew there were going to be some ups and some downs, but nothing like what happened on Friday and Monday. The rally that happened with the market today was extremely beneficial to the people that purchased E*Trade (ETFC) earlier in the trading session. Around 3:00 P.M. E*Trade was up more than 50% then settled at 43%!

I am guessing you (the readers) probably have some other stocks that blew a tire last week, but did your stocks and funds ever recover? And should people view Tuesday as another good day or just another inflated trading day? Personally, I think that there’s going to be a lot more news about the mortgage mess in the upcoming weeks. As an investor, you need to find some stocks that will shake off all the market drama and sustain a good return. I’ve been very challenged by the current market because of all the severe ups and downs. It’s almost like you need to buy when you hear bad news and sell when you hear good news.  Taking a more conservative view point might be a good idea to prevent huge losses while the market stabilizes a little. The stocks I recommended earlier this week are still great long term investments that are less exotic and perform extremely well in recessionary type of times.

What are some other stocks that you’ve been eyeing in these desperate times? Financials? Bio Tech? Defense companies? I’m a huge believer in insurance companies if the price is right during times of uncertainty. Allstate (ALL) and Brown & Brown (BRO) are two companies that are extremely cheap and have a wonderful upside potential with great books. They have plenty of wiggle room from their 52-week high and both have a stable and growing dividend. I am a huge fan of dividends when the market is flying all over the place. They provide some sort of security for me that many growth stocks do not have.

What’s your view of the stock market and the overall economy? Do you think it will start chilling out or do you predict more rapids ahead? I would love to hear people’s investment ideas and opinions concerning the current market. Are you bullish or bearish? Whatever the case may be, there’s still a huge amount of money to make out there and hopefully we can make it together.

How to pick up the Pieces

What do you do when life brings you down? Is there a sure fire way of picking up the pieces after everything breaks? Well, it seems that the market doesn’t want you to move on without going through some rough times. Another down day after a dreadful week of trading can really be hard on people. Especially when you own E*Trade (ETFC) like I do. The stock went down almost 60% in one day after getting the boot from an analyst at Citi (C). I think it’s ironic that Citi can make E*Trade decrease in value by 60% because of a “sell” rating regarding their mortgage segment Yet, Citi only goes down 5% after losing 11 billion dollars!! The market is pretty damn weird.

This is a rough time for me right now, but I need to keep my little chin up. I finally land a job, but I had to relocate to Orlando. I also recently got the “we need space” conversation with my now ex-girlfriend of four years (two months ago now). Yes, the girlfriend that made the beautiful header for this website. E*Trade is down 70% since I purchased it and Nintendo is only returning 34% which is a drop from my 55% gain. After two weeks of living in Florida, I ended up having to relocate again because of roommate issues which I can’t really talk about on this site (lots of rated-R material). I also had to leave my dog with my parents because I couldn’t bring him along with me. My job is 50% travel so I can’t really take care of my son Deuce man.

I guess my new life is a mess, but sometimes being on the ground floor isn’t that bad. I now have the ability to wait everything out. Like the market, life fluctuates up and down. But in the long run you will usually end up on top. One thing that I’ve learned from my whole experience is time heals the damage, but people still need to persevere to win. You can’t always sit in the backseat and expect the car to drive itself. When life gives you lemons, make some lemonade. Make the best out of the situation that life gives to you and you will ultimately succeed.

Should I just complain that my life isn’t what it used to be or should I try to give life the best I got? I think I am going to start trying option two. Giving up and complaining admits defeat. I just need to pick up the pieces that are left and run full speed ahead. Because, as we all know, I will ultimately have a positive return on life and in the stock market.

Freak Out Market

I know it’s been stated many times this week, but holy crap the market is freaking out. Companies can hit their expected/required earnings, surpass them, have an excellent opportunity for future growth, and still get the b*tch slap from the market. I recently purchased some shares of Hologic (HOLX) at $66.00 and now it’s down to $62.09 after a great PROFITABLE quarter. As you know, I also purchased some shares of E*Trade (ETFC) which is down like 35%. My portfolio return for this year is still going to be good, but I am still hoping for a huge push-up.

What should you do when the market is throwing everything at you? Play some hardcore defense. You need to purchase shares of companies that will offer a steady return even in a down market. Coke (KO), P&G (PG), Cadbury (CSG), Unilever (UN), and Kroger (KR) are my defensive picks. A lot of them are at their 52 week highs, but after doing some research I’m sure you can find some good deals on a moderate market pullback. All of the companies I recommended have dividends so you’re at least guaranteed a return. Remember to reinvest those dividends and watch your investments grow.

Growth companies in the technology area are also a good bet because they are much safer than most other sectors in this crazy credit crunch market. After some pretty bad news involving Cisco (CSCO) the whole tech sector dropped 3%. Does this mean every company in the tech sector will be stagnant for the rest of the year? Doubtful… Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG) will probably bounce back next week. Just look at the pullback as a great buying opportunity.

I know the market seems like a huge bonfire for your money right now, but sometimes you have to put your feet in the fire. The market is very crazy right now, so make sure you time and research your investments correctly. There are still plenty of areas to make some good money. Just slow down, think and then pounce when everyone seems like they are selling.  You need to be conservative when everyone is buying and the market is super-saturated. Then you need to switch your strategy to Mr. or Mrs. Aggressive and buy, buy, buy when the market seems to be real crappy. Right now, the market seems pretty crappy (Hint, Hint).

In theory, you want to be an investor that takes multiple swings instead of always trying to hit a homerun. Have some ammo in your arsenal (meaning multiple stock picks) and fire big time when the time feels right. Make a game plan and find out the ways to accomplish your goal. If you want a 25% yearly return, then buying bonds won’t get you there. Find profitable companies that you like and do some research. Luckily, Yahoo Finance provides you with almost all your study materials and it’s free! Remember, have fun, make money and keep your eye on the ball. Eventually, your portfolio will turn into a huge home run!

Show Me The Money

I can honestly say that getting a higher return in a portfolio is actually easier than most people think. My investment strategy is becoming a little more complex, but my theories are still pretty basic. Find good and profitable companies with long sustainable growth. Of course one of the biggest changes that I’ve done is purchasing more shares of a company instead of diversifying in many companies with a lump sum. I would rather a return of 20% with an investment of a $1000 in one company versus a 30% average return in ten companies with the same investment amount. I know I’ve been covering this issue a lot lately, but I truly think it’s an important topic. Trading fees can kill an investment when you buy in small increments. I know a lot of bloggers disagree with me on this, but in my personal experience its worked wonders.

Last year my individual stock portfolio returned a pretty healthy return, but I’ve already made almost double that even when I incorporate trading fees. I realize that putting more of my eggs in fewer baskets can be dangerous, but doing your homework can really save that “investment risk.”

This year I’ve made some big purchases (for me at least) in some good growth companies. As you know, I’ve decided to buy Nintendo and E*Trade.  I still have $2200 left to add to my Roth IRA. Here are the stocks that I am looking at purchasing later on this year. Masimo Corporation was brought to my attention earlier last month. Jim Cramer also reinsured my position after speaking highly about the company earlier this week. The company recently became public and they’ve done a great job in the medical technology field. They have patents on their most profitable products and apparently they have technologies that will change the whole industry.

Pengrowth and Penn West are still looking good and have those extremely high paying dividends, which is always a good investment. I’m leaning more towards Penn West because Pengrowth just lowered their dividend yield. The nice thing about these companies is they pay their dividends on a monthly basis. This means your investment compounds monthly and grants you a higher return than the quoted dividend. I want to maximize my returns this year. I want to aim at getting a 54% return. I know it seems high and unrealistic, but I could sell the shares I already own and put them in cash and make a 32% return.

Everyone has a different investment strategy and I am not saying that mine is perfect, but since I’ve changed my style, money is certainly coming faster than before. Just remember that diversification in small amounts will lower your return. I would recommend putting your money in a high-yield savings account until you reach a $1000 dollars. After that, you can look at what stocks fit your investment style and strategy.

Being Patient Sucks

I know investing is not always easy. I know that most people want to sell when their stocks are down and have a “let it ride” mentality when their stocks are reaching new 52 week highs. It’s always nice to see when your stocks perform much higher than indexes, but sometimes you need to know when to hold em’ and when to fold em’. You can never actually make any money in the stock market without selling some stock. When you are sitting on some nice gains without shaving some profits, this situation could turn into a disaster.

Apple keeps hitting new 52 week highs and it seems like they are still trucking for more. They still have their new operating system and the 2nd generation iPhones waiting to be released. I purchased the stock when it was floating around $100 a share. Now it’s floating around the high $160’s. That’s a 60% gain! Imagine your portfolio could get that every year. You would be the richest person alive in about 30 years.  Unfortunately, that does not happen, but you can still take the profit and run. There is no shame in cutting and running once you struck gold with an investment. If your stock is up that high, why not take out your investment and let the gains ride. You have nothing to lose. You are playing with “house” money at that point. Remember that this strategy will only work if you have enough money in the actually stock. Trading fees can kill your return so make sure it’s worth selling. Try finding a broker that offers lower trading fees so nothing can disrupt the money you’ve earned.

You also need to realize that selling a stock that is down can sometimes save you tons of money or really cost you tons of money. The “street” can overact on some companies which can damage their share price very quickly. This is actually a great buying opportunity if you are involved in a company that has long-term commitments to profitability. For instance, Walgreen’s  is a great company and the largest drugstore in the U.S. Because they didn’t meet the streets expectations, their stock price fell 8 points. Does this actually mean Walgreen’s will perform like crap forever? Probably not. There’s a reason why they are number one. They will learn from their mistakes and fix the issues that ended up hurting them this quarter. On the other hand, selling off a stock that falls because of the corporate structure, they are in mounds of debt, and other companies keep suing them for patent infringements could mean it’s just a bad company. That’s the story about Vonage. I learned my lesson about some risky company’s and you should always evaluate before you buy and sell stock.

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